Is Trump ready to fight a forever war?

So much for the contention that President Donald Trump always chickens out. Trump has done what George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden contemplated but never executed: bombing Iran’s main nuclear sites with a combination of bunker busters and Tomahawk cruise missiles. 

In his brief White House address on Saturday night, Trump exuded confidence, stating that the Iranian nuclear program had been “obliterated.” But he made it clear that he is prepared to up the ante, pledging that if Iran doesn’t agree to a peace deal, then the bombing campaign will be expanded. Trump said that the US “will go to those other targets with precision, speed and skill.” America is now at war with Iran.

Already Trump’s MAGA followers are (largely) hailing his audacious decision. Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk declared, “Iran gave President Trump no choice.” Former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz wrote that the President “basically wants this to be like the Solimani strike-one and done. No regime change war. Trump the Peacemaker!”

That is one scenario. But another one is a fresh calamity in the Middle East. 

What if Trump’s crusade against Iran, a charter member of the axis of evil, turns into an imbroglio, enmeshing America in yet another “forever war”? Trump is ripe for the charge of hypocrisy. During the 2024 campaign, for example, Trump stated that “If Kamala wins, only death and destruction await because she is the candidate of endless wars. I am the candidate of peace. I am peace.” The writer Matthew Walther quipped on X, “Well, now that we are bombing Iran under a Republican president, can we at least bring back The Weekly Standard?” The neocons who have been thirsting for decades to topple the regime in Tehran may be jubilant, but they are scarcely Trump’s natural constituency.

It will be trouble for Trump if the bombing campaign turns out to be mission unaccomplished. The mullahs are issuing threats against any Americans based in the region and Trump’s calls for “peace” are likely to strike them as hollow. Should Iran strike out at the American military bases dotting the region, Trump would feel obligated to respond. What’s more, Iran could move to prevent oil tankers from traversing the Strait of Hormuz, thereby sending oil prices soaring to at least $100 per barrel.

Trump is going into this battle alone. He declined to seek the approval of Congress for military action in the Middle East and thumbed his nose at Democrats by refusing to give them any real advance notice about his strikes. If the war spreads, it will be Trump (and Trump alone) who bears the responsibility. His vice-president JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard reportedly advised him not to bomb. Suspicions are percolating in Washington that Vance leaked his opposition ahead of the actual bombing to ensure that he can run in 2028 as the true MAGA candidate. If so, he will have stiff competition from Gabbard who has emerged as a notable skeptic that Iran was anywhere close to developing a nuclear weapons capability.

For now, Trump is declaring “a spectacular military success.” He is unlikely to confront much public opposition in Republican ranks. But as he threatens Iran with further attacks, Trump would do well to remember what former Secretary of State Colin Powell called the Pottery Barn rule: you break it, you own it.